Perturbazione atlantica in arrivo: forti piogge sulle tirreniche


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perturbazione atlantico in arrivoIn questi giorni c’eravamo quasi scordati di essere entrati nell’autunno meteorologico, e questo soprattutto  al sud investito in pieno dall’onda anticiclonica che ha garantito  un clima simil -estivo  . Ma ora il quadro barico stà per cambiare, pare che adesso l’autunno voglia riprendersi un po’ del suo spazio perduto ;  d’altronde  la  stagione  avanza e si avvicina sempre piu’ al suo giro di boa per cui è logico attendersi un abbassamento del flusso atlantico anche in direzione del  mediterraneo. E proprio una di queste perturbazioni abbassando” il suo target “ determinerà nelle prossime ore un brusco peggioramento sull’Italia . Si tratterà tuttavia di una ondata di maltempo intensa ma veloce. Tutte le regioni verranno interessate, ma vista la disposizione delle correnti, saranno quelle tirreniche le piu’ colpite. Allerta Massima in Toscana e Lazio  che in serata ma  soprattutto in nottata potranno essere interessate da forti fenomeni temporaleschi pre-frontali, non escluse grandinate e locali trombe d’aria.

gfs 500 hpaPoi nella giornata di domani martedì 05 Novembre 2013 il maltempo scivolerà verso sud coinvolgendo anche le  regioni meridionali italiane. Anche qui le aree piu’ colpite saranno quelle piu’ esposte al Tirreno ; nubifragi a sfondo temporalesco andranno a colpire nel corso della giornata la aree tirreniche di Campania, Basilicata e  Calabria;  picchi precipitativi di 80-100 mm non esclusi su Cilento, Basilicata Tirrenica , e Alta Calabria Tirrenica ; queste  risulteranno le zone  piu’ colpite al sud. Moderati e veloci  temporali , specie nel corso del pomeriggio, potranno abbattersi per “sfondamento” anche su  Sibaritide e alle aree esposte a Sud-Ovest dell’Alto Jonio (Cerchiara di Calabria-San Lorenzo Bellizzi).  Attenzione anche ai venti: il maestrale  toccherà forza 10 sulla sardegna, ma  violente mareggiate potranno verificarsi un po’ su tutte le coste esposte ad ovest e nord-ovest. Poi da  mercoledì tornerà ancora l’anticiclone, ma attenzione perché già dal prossime week-end il tempo cambierà nuovamente con  perturbazioni pronte a colpire l’Italia, e questa volta complice anche un HP sul Nord-Atlntico, potrebbero assumere  una componente sempre piu’ meridiana “aprendo” la strada al primo possibile sbuffo freddo stagionale verso il 15-20 novembre. Per ora si tratta ancora di una ipotesi avvalorata solo da alcuni Global Model, tuttavia ci teniamo a precisare che così come vuole la cd “Legge della compensazione” (..alternanza tra   periodi caldi e secchi  a  periodi freddi e umidi, e viceversa) lo sblocco – visto anche l’avanzare della stagione – potrebbe esserci  .. Continuate a seguirci.

lamma precipitazioni 05 novembre 2013

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