Arriva il grande freddo


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Analisi a 500 hpaAvevamo più volte evidenziato la possibilità che entro il mese di novembre si sarebbe concretizzata in netto anticipo una ondata di freddo sull’Italia; ebbene sì, non possiamo ora che confermare questo quadro barico che andrà a caratterizzare il tempo nei prossimi giorni. Allo stato attuale l’Italia è già interessata da un moderato afflusso di correnti nord-atlantiche, già relativamente fredde ma questo  non è nulla in confronto a quello che arriverà in seguito quando – specie tra  la sera di lunedì 25 novembre e giovedì 28 novembre – sull’Italia  tutta  si  concretizzerà un’ondata di freddo che potremmo definirla davvero eccezionale considerando il periodo dell’anno. Le masse d’aria infatti giungeranno direttamente da Nord-est , quindi con componente continentale particolarmente fredda. Vista la provenienza delle masse d’aria saranno le regioni del medio-basso versante adriatico e alto-joniche ad essere maggiormente interessate dalle isoterme piu’ fredde, in queste aree si potranno registrare scarti termici particolarmente notevoli rispetto ad ora, sino a –13° C rispetto ad ora tanto che sulle aree montane oltre i 700 mt slm potremo parlare di gelo vero e proprio in particolar modo tra martedì e giovedì mattina quando raggiungeremo l’apice di questa 1°ondata di freddo .

anomalie termiche.1Ma la domanda che ormai tutti si chiedono è se il grande freddo porterà anche la neve…ebbene tutto questo dipenderà dalla spinta che il nocciolo gelido a 500 Hpa avrà  nel suo avanzamento  verso sud-ovest, maggiori saranno i Km conquistati in territorio Italico e maggiori saranno le possibilità di assistere alla genesi di piccoli minimi barici sui nostri mari. Come sempre accade in occasione di ondate da est, ci sarà grande incertezza sino a poche ore dall’evento (ricordiamo infatti che queste sono le situazioni piu’ complicate da decifrare anche da parte dei piu’ evoluti  Global Model disponibili allo stato attuale) . Ci teniamo tuttavia a precisare che gli ultimissimi aggiornamenti hanno evidenziato un maggiore interessamento dell’Italia del nocciolo gelido a 500 Hpa ; se tale ipotesi verrà  confermata le precipitazioni , e quindi le nevicate , saranno molto piu’ abbondanti e non saranno limitate alle sole aree piu’ esposte all’adriatico ma andranno ad interessare anche molte aree appenniniche del Sud  sin dalle basse quote. Seguiranno aggiornamenti.

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