Arriva la neve sull’Adriatico


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nevicate.2E’ ormai imminente l’arrivo sull’Italia  di un consistente impulso artico, preludio di un prepotente e anticipato  ingresso invernale sul nostro paese. L’italia infatti assaporerà in maniera del tutto repentina i rigori dell’ inverno . Il tutto è da attribuire ad una elevazione dell’HP Medio Atlantico che spinge con vigore  in direzione di UK e Scandinavia; in questo quadro barico è logico attendersi il risucchio di aria fredda di tipo artico (con componente continentale in questo caso) in direzione dei settori centrali e meridionali europei. L’apice del freddo si raggiungerà tra martedì 26 novembre e giovedì 28 quando in molte aree montuose del centro-sud oltre i 700 mt slm le temperature potranno scendere  sotto lo zero termico. Con riferimento alle nevicate in arrivo , diciamo sin da subito che  nelle ultime ore è sfumata l’ipotesi di un maggiore coinvolgimento dell’Italia; il nocciolo gelido a 500 Hpa non entrerà in maniera franca sul nostro paese prendendo solo di striscio le regioni adriatiche che risulteranno in assoluto le aree  maggiormente interessate dai fenomeni precipitativi.Dalla notte, ma soprattutto nella giornata di domani, nevicate a quote molto basse (100-300 mt slm ) investiranno l’Abruzzo, il Molise, e il Gargano , tra martedì sera e mercoledì la neve potrebbe spingersi sino alle aree costiere  ma con accumuli scarsi/nulli  .

Analisi a 500 HpaL’instabilità sarà  ancor piu’ amplificata dall’effetto stau ,tanto che in alcuni casi potrà risultare abbastanza pronunciata. Riteniamo probabile che su aree pede-montane molto esposte ortograficamente , come l’Alto Molise,  si potranno verificare nevicate a tratti copiose specie tra martedì e mercoledì.  Sul restante comparto appenninico centro-meridionale gli effetti precipitativi saranno molto più contenuti e limitati a causa della sostanziale assenza di minimi barici in azione. Tuttavia l’entrata del nocciolo gelido sull’adriatico non sarà indenne ; specie nelle primissime ore il differente gradiente termico tra l’aria fredda in arrivo e la temperatura dei mari andrà ad instabilizzare l’aria anche su molte aree del sud. In serata ma soprattutto in nottata una diffusa instabilità potra’ interessare l’Irpinia, la Basilicata, e la Calabria. Il brusco calo termico determinerà un repentino abbassamento della quota neve tanto che sui monti della Lucania Settentrionale potremo assistere a locali fioccate sino ai 300 mt slm . Quote interessanti anche sul Pollino e e Sila, qui potremo assistere alle prime fioccate della stagione sin dai 400-500 mt slm. Ci teniamo tuttavia a precisare che non si tratterà di nevicate abbondanti, l’instabilità infatti sarà a cd “macchia di leopardo” e poco diffusa sul territorio . Su queste aree infatti le precipitazioni maggiori si concentreranno nella notte tra lunedì e martedì 26 novembre. Precipitazioni invece piu’ abbondanti colpiranno l’estremo sud della Calabria e il Nord della Sicilia, ma qui le termiche saranno piu’ elevate con quota neve mediamente sui 700/800 mt slm. Mercoledì proseguiranno invece le nevicate sulle regioni adriatiche ma saranno piu’ deboli rispetto al giorno precedente. Da  giovedì la situazione dovrebbe migliorare anche sull’adriatico , anche se è emersa  l’ipotesi di  un debole fronte instabile in formazione sul medio- basso tirreno. Tale fronte  andrebbe poi ad interessare la Basilicata e il Cosentino con possibili deboli fioccate a quote di collina/alta collina. Nei prossimi editoriali potremo essere piu’ precisi.

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