Si “riaccende” l’inverno..


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analisi a 500 hpaAvvicinandoci sempre piu’ alla  fine del cd periodo di pre-condizionamento Nam (fine Gennaio 2014), si fanno sempre piu’ evidenti i segni di indebolimento del super Vortice Polare Troposferico che per lungo tempo ha  dominato il quadro barico europeo.  Tutto questo porterà, da qui ai prossimi giorni,  alla tanto attesa “svolta” stagionale piu’ volte menzionata nei nostri precedenti editoriali: non piu’ un flusso zonale ma un quadro barico piu’ propenso ai cd “Scambi Meridiani” . Da premettere sin da subito che non e’ attesa nessuna ondata di gelo sull’Italia, ma di  certo   andremo incontro ad un relativo cambio di circolazione che ci proietterà in un quadro meteorologico piu’ consono all’inverno. Si attiverà infatti un corridoio di aria polare marittima che con direttrice Nord-ovest >Sud-est piloterà a piu’ riprese sul mediterraneo centrale e occidentale impulsi perturbati, con giornate di relativo maltempo invernale anche sull’Italia  .

gfs italia prpIn una prima fase , dalla serata odierna e sino a domenica mattina, avremo un maggiore coinvolgimento del centro-sud Italia con fenomeni temporaleschi anche moderati sul Basso Tirreno tra Campania, Calabria, e Sicilia Settentrionale. Ma l’elemento saliente sarà il calo termico che favorirà per la prima volta in questo inverno nevicate a quote medio-basse anche sugli appennini (nb.ricordiamo che il primo moderato affondo nordico avvenne a novembre quando ancora non eravamo entrati nel cd. Inverno meteorologico). Gia’ dalla serata-nottata odierna ma ancor piu’ nella giornata di domani  l’ingresso di aria fredda – sia in quota che al suolo –  favorirà un calo della quota neve sull’Appennino. Le isoterme piu’ fredde si registreranno al Centro-Nord Italia,  tanto che sull’appennino Marchigiano-Abruzzese-Molisano la dama bianca potrebbe spingersi domani sino a 400-500 mt slm.  Maltempo  al sud dove sarà in azione un centro di bassa pressione sul basso Tirreno. Piogge di moderata entità tra Campania, Puglia, Basilicata, Calabria e Nord-Sicilia.   Maggiormente colpiti i versanti tirrenici. Con lo spostamento del minimo in direzione dello Jonio il freddo riuscirà a raggiungere anche l’estremo sud , risulterà però molto piu’ attenuato rispetto al centro-Italia. La quota neve qui si manterrà piu’ alta, mediamente oltre i 900 mt slm , tuttavia avendo a che’ fare con aria polare marittima non sono escluse sorprese anche a quote piu’ basse: locali fioccate coreografiche potrebbero spingersi sino a 600 mt slm tra Irpinia e Basilicata con neve molto probabile a Potenza città, a 700/800 mt slm tra Pollino e Nord-Sila, oltre gli 800/900 mt slm tra Serre e Aspromonte.  Ricordiamo che in presenza di Aria Polare Marittima,  affinchè il freddo  si   rovesci al suolo con maggiore facilità , particolare importanza assumono  le precipitazioni: ove presenti, infatti, gli effetti del CALO TERMICO saranno maggiori  favorendo, quindi, fenomeni NEVOSI a  quote piu’ basse . Treno di perturbazioni artico-marittime previsto anche nella prossima settimana; tuttavia  l’affondo piu’ occidentale (Francia/Pirenei Orientali) favorirà un maggiore coinvolgimento del Nord-Italia con le prime moderate nevicate pronte a “imbiancare” le pianure specie quelle Emiliane e Basso Lombarde, gran neve sull’appennino tosco-emiliano, romagnolo e marchigiano. Scenario che potrebbe ripetersi anche a Febbraio quando non sono escluse ulteriori  bordate con maggiore contributo artico.

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