Week-end di fuoco: saranno i giorni più roventi dell’estate 2015?


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gfs_500 hpa_caldo

In questo primo scorcio dell’Estate 2015 a dettar legge sullo scenario mediterraneo è proprio l’ Anticiclone Africano che lo scorso anno era stato un po’ latitante, e pare che tale figura barica non sia  assolutamente intenzionata a gettare la spugna. Dalla giornata di oggi infatti, l’ondata di caldo sarà in forte  accentuazione, insomma una nuova e progressiva recrudescenza del grande caldo s’impadronirà del Mediterraneo. Questa  nuova fase di caldo intenso potrebbe perdurare addirittura sin verso la fine di luglio; siamo solo agli inizi, ma stavolta il caldo risulterà notevole anche al Sud. Escalation termica nelle ore pomeridiane quando le temperature si avvicineranno sovente alla  soglia dei 37/38° C  in molte località del Centro-Sud. Picchi di  40/41°C potrebbero toccarsi  nella giornata di domenica su alcune zone interne fra Puglia e Lucania, Piana di Sibari , e Valle Crati (cs) .

termiche_suolo

ANALISI ESTATE 2015

Tra le cause della riproposizione a oltranza di alcune figure bariche nello scacchiere europeo sembra possa incidere in  maniera determinante, quest’anno, la distribuzione delle SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies) in Atlantico , ovvero un anomalia termica negativa (lago freddo) in pieno ATLANTICO che favorisce la costanza degli affondi atlantici in tali settori oceanici, e conseguentemente la risalita inesorabile della cupola africana verso il Mediterraneo.

L’attuale trend continuerà per  tutta l’estate?? Non necessariamente. Il trend SSTA potrebbe iniziare a cambiare verso la prima decade di agosto. Alla stato attuale tuttavia non possiamo che certificare un luglio 2015  che si avvia a diventare una lunga maratona calda, con punte di caldo sino a oltre i  40° C accompagnate da situazioni di disagio in molte città. Insomma la fresca e movimentata estate dello scorso anno sembra ormai solo un lontano ricordo .

ssta_estate 2015

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